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Doc’s Countdown to LOST part one – 4 Predictions

By docarzt,

  Filed under: Lost
  Comments: 11

Note: DarkUFO has confirmed that he will have finale spoilers.  I advise you to avoid the comments section until after the finale has aired.  Historically, people who enjoy being gigantic douchebags have posted these spoilers everywhere they can once they are released. You can vote your feelings on this in the poll in the sidebar.

LOST is almost over!  Long live lost!  I’m going to be counting down to the series finale with a series of lists, beginning with my 4 predictions for the finale.  After this will be similarly themed 8, 15, 16, 23, and 42 item long lists.  I’ll keep the substance of those secret, but 42 is an entirely different matter.  For that one, I’m going to need your help.

The final entry will be “42 ways LOST has touched our lives.”  For example, my obvious answer would be that LOST introduced me to hundreds of thoughtful friends that I feel privileged  to have known.  Consider that a spoiler for item number 1.  I’d like as many of the other 42 items to come from the readers of this blog.  So send me an email at and tell me how LOST has touched your life.  Did you meet your wife/husband?  Lose your job?  Gain fame?  Tell me your story and I’ll share it with the rest of our readers in the final article.  Be sure to tell me how you want to be named in the piece.  Now on to “4 Predictions!”

UPDATE: Please try to keep the ways that LOST touched your life under 200 characters or so. You get the point.

NOTE:  No spoilers were used in the creation of this list.  In fact, I highly doubt any of it is even right.  I apologize in advance if any of these have been dispelled by teases or anything like that, I’ve been keeping my head out of the spoiler-sphere for quite some time.

War… what is it good for?

The final beats of LOST are also the writers final opportunity to say anything with regards to any of the themes of LOST, and I doubt they will waste the opportunity with purely entertainment class material.  I’m not saying LOST will be preachy, but it will be heartfelt.  That, I guarantee.   So my first prediction relates to a word we hear quite often on LOST: War.  War has been an ongoing theme of the show from the beginning, and the Wars that have been waged have resonated in a very sub-textual way with the real Wars that have been waged while the story of LOST has unfolded.  Again, I don’t suggest that LOST is an allegory of the current state of conflicts around the world – but the writers are no more immune to the collective anxieties,  emotions, and even weary indifference that permeates the societies of the world.  War is ugly, war is bad, and long wars usually overshoot their necessity.  Such is the war between MIB and The Island. Here’s my prediction:

Prediction #1: Who wins the war?  Nobody. This is assuming that Damon and Carlton will come down on this theme as a construct; war never changes – it only changes players.  The scenario I see playing out is that John Locke is defeated, but Ben Linus is somehow cast into the heart of the island suggesting that he will become the next smoke monster.  The struggle for the heart of the island goes on to infinity, as does the myriad justification for real-world war, leaving Jack to suffer Jacob’s fate of waiting with a fool’s optimism for mankind to prove that it is latently, and impossibly, good.

Two sides, one is light.  One is dark.

While I have no doubts that Jack and the gang will succeed on the island, I have deep fears for our friends in the ‘other’ universe.  As I suggested on the last podcast, Ben remembering his island life might not be the best thing for that Universe.  Ben of the island is simply not redeemable, all of his redemptive moments have turned out to be bull.  Ben is a bad guy with one interest:  the island.  Consider this:  “What They Died For” setup Ben’s most rudimentary inner struggle:  his uncontrollable lust to control the island, and Alex.  We know how he chose last time. While he was remorseful, it hasn’t taken him long to get back to his old ways.

Prediction #2:  Ben is going to do something really bad in the alternate universe.  My sense is that the substance of the two worlds will combine in some twisted way for Ben, in this Universe is it possible for him to have his cake and eat it too?  Alex, after-all, is alive and it just might be possible that Ben Linus knows how to raise the island.  If that were the case, a Ben of two worlds might try to foil any efforts to merge the universes; not to mention, make a move to extinguish anyone else who might have enough knowledge to stop him.

Kate will make a choice.

While the core romantic story is over for the love triangle, Kate still has an opportunity to make a choice between Jack and Sawyer in a very romantic and dramatic way.  Consider this:  a lot of fans think that Kate has essentially tried both guys out and come out worse for the wear.  Not true.  Sawyer sacrificed his chance to get off the island so that Kate and the others could escape.  She changed him, in a big way.  This was not the Sawyer of season one.  Her relationship with Jack was going all the way to the altar, but he was ultimately tortured into Gregory House level aloofness by the long arm of The Island.  Neither of these relationships played out to a natural breaking point, and both were forged out of circumstance.  Kate hasn’t made a choice here at all.

Prediction #3:  Kate will finally, once and for all, profess her love for one man or the other.  It may not lead to the happily ever after that `shippers have been looking for, but it will settle the argument of who Kate loves the most, and for all the right reasons, once and for all.

Don’t confuse fate, or destiny, for rules.

The idea that all of nature can be boiled down to a couple of options is, ridiculous.  The battles between faith and science, and fate and destiny, have been two of the biggest red herrings of LOST from the beginning.  In the world of LOST, both sides of these fundamental concepts jockey for position – occasionally besting one another, but never emerging the victor. LOST has shown us that reality is much stranger than any hard line philosophical belief can describe.  Reality defies prediction.  Reality, in LOST at least, denies prediction with a wickedness infused intellect.  The ‘reality’ of LOST, in other words, likes to f*ck with everybody. Leading to…

Prediction #4:  There is an as yet unseen player in the game that will show their face, and their forum, in the final scene.  I’m not thinking anything of the nature of St. Elswhere in a snow-globe, or some bizarre alien moving his Jack into checkmate over his opponent’s Locke, but something of equal effect and high creativity.  Perhaps something that, at first glance, won’t make a lot of sense.  I hope.  That is my prediction for the final scene.  Something that suggests an intellect that has been weaved into the fabric of the story all along.

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  • I like your first prediction – would lend some creedence to the (unsourced) quote on Jacob’s tapestry, “Only the dead have seen the end of war.”

  • Handsome Smitty

    1. “We’re almost at the end.” Wrong on number one because indeed the war – at least on the Island – has its one and only ending.

    2. Ben most likely is seeking redemption in a sense. Watching 16 a second time, I believe Ben killed Widmore to prevent him from betraying the Island to protect his daughter. “He doesn’t get to save his daughter,” was just to throw UnLocke off. Sure, can we blame him for having a little satisfaction in taking down the man who essentially had his daughter killed? No. I do think Ben gets his redemption – or hope he does, in spite of deploring his evil deeds – by sinking the Island. It’s possible his redemption comes from simply betraying UnLocke to the benefit of Jack, somehow sacrificing his life to do so. However, I think we might find Ben alone on the Island, aware of the Sideways© Heaven that awaits, deciding to sink the Island, to “let go,” and join the Losties in the Sideways© reality.

    (I suspect your guess is made because of a supposed spoiler floating around, and if so, not fair.”

    3. It doesn’t seem logical from what the Sideways© has revealed thus for to have Kate end up with Jack. All her interactions have been with Sawyer so it’s more likely she ends up with him. I have my fingers crossed for Nathan Fillion showing up to somehow clear her name and be revealed as her husband.

    4. If your 4 happens, many people will call foul. No, they’ll SCREAM foul! The alt-reality has been hard enough to accept as it is. I hated the idea of it, but I like the characters, believe strongly in the concept of redemption, and so will be content to have them play out their lives in Sideways©.

    However, I do suspect Locke is UnLocke in the Sideways©, and if that’s the final, revealing scene, I suppose many people will be happy with that. It would leave the idea of good vs bad undermined (for many people who still don’t understand just how evil MIB/UnLocke and Ben are).

    • docarzt

      Well, I think you misread me on all parts except #3. :). Instead of clarifying though, I’m gonna make you read it again. 😉

  • Slimchicken

    Don’t mistake The Rules for rules.

  • Jacob’s Revenge

    1. The whole concept of “war” in LOST has been a pathetic letdown. At best it’s been minor skirmishes between engineers and castaways trying to play army with rifles they don’t know the first thing about. Fail.

    2. Ben can always be counted on to do something ultra-selfish and self-serving, no leap there.

    3. As much as Ben is selfish, Kate is fickle. She cannot choose, it’s not in her character. She’s always conniving and on-the-run. Making a choice and settling down would be a cop-out, out of character; she doesn’t have it in her.

    4. We’re likeminded on #4, as are alot of us I’d suppose. With so much talk of sides, rules, Island-magic, senseless and wanton killing, it has all the earmarks of some game that’s being played out. The only mystery to reveal is the game metaphor that C&L choose to use: aliens, computer simulations, Second Life, MMORGs, etc.

    I just hope it’s a well considered, well constructed ending that doesn’t go all Deus Ex Machina on us.

  • Motherlode

    hey Doc. you are one for 4. prediction 3 was the only one that manifested

  • Matt

    How come the countdown never went past 4? You said this would be a countdown, and there were never any other posts… I was looking forward to them!

  • You are obviously very good at gathering data and writing it in clear terms for your readers. I like your unique take on this topic and I agree with you on a lot of it.