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TheTailsection Archive – The Libby Factor

By docarzt,

  Filed under: Lost News
  Comments: 12

lost-libby-in-hospital1In this first entry to TheTailsection Archive, I rewind to September 2007 and reintroduce you to a bit of theorizing I did (which is now re-credited to my good friend ErasedSlate on TTS – without his permission) which I think you guys will find relevant. I’m not patting myself on the back here, I’ll leave that to you.

Doc Arzt’s Crazy Theory: Libby is part of the Brother Campbell/Mrs. Hawking Collective.
Explain Yourself Doc: This is a complete no brainer to me, and hopefully to all of you as well. Libby is the final part in a trilogy of visits from the time bending beings that Brother Campbell and Mrs. Hawking call kin. Do I have evidence? My case would stand up in court.

The Theory
We assume, from what we have seen, that these people have influenced Desmond to a certain destiny which they are capable of. This, obviously, makes them beings from a higher dimension. I prefer to think of it as the implicate realm. Essentially time is like a record album to them.

When you hold a record in your hand, you can see the entire space of time that music has the potential to occupy. This analogy may have even been used as a clue when Desmond played his song “Make your own kind of music.” The lyrics are, in a way, about making your own luck/destiny on your own terms. If music represents time, the song represents choice. What does this have to do with Libby?

If the Brother Campbell/Mrs. Hawkings people were able to see the consequence of certain changes, they would also have the ability to place one of their own people on the plane. As a matter of fact, they would have to.

The idea of getting Desmond there is that it would create an opportunity for one of them to get there and subsequently repair whatever force on the island has the potential to undo creation. I’ve already sold you my cosmogonic cycle bill of goods, so I’ll leave my reasons for thinking there is a death of the universe end game at that.

It would make perfect sense that Libby would be one of those people. First, she is a person that appeared out of the blue to shift Desmond’s destiny in a dramatic way. Just like Brother Campbell, and more forcefully Mrs. Hawking. Libby’s interaction was definitely key to Desmond arriving at the island. We can safely assume that there is a higher force that guided Desmond to the island, so someone functioning out of a chance encounter that significantly facilitates his trip to the island, Libby, is a suspect.

Why was she in Hurley’s past? The answer to that dilemma becomes easier to resolve if you subscribe to my time loop theory. Course correction would lead most of the people who were destined to be on Oceanic 815 to the plan, but that would not stop the time lords from needing to nudge other characters like they nudged Desmond. She was an observer watching what was known to be one of the more volatile factors, Hurley.

Foot Notes

“But Doc, what is this time loop theory?” you ask. It’s remarkably simple, and complex at the same time. The complexity of it is inconsequential to how it would be told in the story itself. Its more of a construct. So don’t take this as information that would be spilled in some mind numbing blitz of exposition.

Basically, my time loop theory says that what we have been watching from the beginning of season one is the second revolution of a time loop. In the first, everything happened except Desmond coming to the island. Radzinsky committed suicide, and Kelvin became unstable just as he did while Desmond was there, but without someone to talk to he became more and more depressed and eventually either died or chose the Radzinsky way out.

Oceanic 815 was lost and subsequently crashed at sea.

Without anyone to push the button, The Swan had a complete melt down which is massive enough to result in the bending of time space into a loop.

Brother Campbell and his band of time plumbers go to work. If I were writing it, the kicker would be that every repetition of the curve brings the universe closer to an end. So they look at time, seeing cause and effect as an immediate painting of the future, and look for destinies that can be bumped in order to first deliver someone to the island to keep the button pushing, and second allow them to get one or more of their people to the island to somehow permanently fix the problem.

Why can’t they go in on the water? Who knows. Why did Ben say that God could not see the island? I would guess the island exists in a closed time-like curve and can only be reached under specific conditions. That being the case, Brother Campbell and crew could steer people to be there when the conditions were right, but couldn’t do so themselves. Might be a percpetual problem from their level of reality. Like we can see the grooves on a record as points in time relative to the music, we cannot look at the grooves and see the notes playing. Higher dimensions do occasionally have their drawbacks.

So the question is, why Desmond and 815? Because in the original, normal, unlooped timeline all of them died. Once on the island, in the time like curve, they would be protected from course correction because they would essentially be in a privileged field, a new universe.

This leads us to the breakdown of the mission with the turning of the failsafe key. When the failsafe key is turned it caused a controlled meltdown. The result, as we saw from Desmond’s perspective, is that time loops again. A consequence, however, may be present in the fact that to everyone on the outside, Oceanic 815 was found at the bottom of the ocean.

UPDATE: Wow, in the years since this was written a lot of things sure have changed!  For starters, with what we know of Mrs. Hawking, I would certainly not predict that she is a higher dimensional being.   Instead, it is more like her and her cohorts have achieved Arthur C. Clarke’s third law of prediction “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”

There was actually a graphic that was used to show Hawking’s failures at correcting the ‘issue,’ but it wasn’t as slick as I wanted it to be so I never posted it.  I’ve updated it a bit, and here it is… in all of it’s ugliness.  The question is:  isn’t the Jughead = The Swan argument a lot like “Which came first, the chicken or the egg”? (Click the image to enlarge)


  • you were definitely one or two steps ahead of us on that one Doc…16 months ago I would have read this and thought you were way out there. now i think you’re flirting heavily with the truth.

  • Angel

    Thanks for touching on Libby (albiet over a year ago, but none the less), I have always known Libby plays a more important role than just a Tailie that gets killed off too early (damn you Darlton!) I am fully confident we will see her again before the end of the series, even if its just in flashbacks

  • Actually, we won’t be seeing her again 🙁 or getting the full dirt on her backstory
    Damon and Carlton recently said that they felt Libby’s story was pretty much done as far as they’re we won’t be seeing anything or finding anything more out 🙁 I’m a bit disappointed

  • Way to go, Doc! I think you cracked the mystery of Libby well in advance. My hat’s off to you.

    At this point, I think one of the bigger questions is, “which events do all ‘players’ know have to happen so they ensure that they do, and which ones are the attempted manipulations to gain the upper hand?”

  • A lingering question I have is this: Why did they need a physical human being as a button pusher? Certainly a simple computer program would suffice if all that was needed to happen was to have an electrical signal sent to some device every 108 minutes. So in my mind, it was all just some psychological experiment on the button pushees, or there is more to it than just the button. Has there been a post on this already? If so, please someone give me the link to that post.

  • horace goodspeed

    I love the concept. I only wonder how it can be neatly unfolded in the narrative. That is to say, is it an overt plot element, or is it more for the secondary canon (i.e., online experience; video game)?

  • halla holla holla lost fan

    i have to disagree with the chart here. once desmond is on the island he is responsible for kelvin’s death. he is also responsible for crashing 815 to the island. so desmond on island = 815 on island. even if desmond never came, the others new that kelvin was down there pushing the button and if kelvin died, the others would fix it. the time loop theory does not fit in with the rule that you cannot change the past. desmond is the only one that the rules dont apply to, the losties are skipping through time which to everyone else past or future that interacts with them is how it actually happened. though time is like a recored still think of time as an unchangeable straight line, which has a beginning middle and end, just like a record you can go back to previous tracks but cannot rewrite the music. mrs. hawking knows what could happen, and cannot stop by herself whatever the catastrophe is, as a result of the 6 not getting back to the island. though there is only one outcome that will happen and no one knows what that will be, everyone has choices to make still, it is up to mrs. hawking, ben and whomever ( because are the only ones that know what will happen if sh-t doesnt go right) to convince the losties to make the right decisions. everyone has a destiny on lost, some people choose to ignore it and bad things happen (the oceanic 6) if the losties do not save the island, time itself (the record) will stop and end prematurely and endgame, no restarts no loops no nothing.

    • docarzt

      actually there are infinite ways to make it work. What if the first time around they were not aware of the purpose of the swan? Kelvin would have died eventually, they may have bought the pearl orientation film hook line and sinker.

  • Desi’s Brother

    I started a thread on the Characters Forum which is a Petition for the writers to deal with Libby and finish her story.

    I get so annoyed when I hear comments like the writers saying that Libby’s story is finished! WTF that is bull.

    Anyway, join on the forum and hopefully they will see it.

  • Interesting theory but I think it was made pretty clear that the plane was planted by someone, and is not a real copy of the plane that crashed. So I am pretty sure that at least that part of it doesn’t make sense, especially considering Faraday’s Rules of Time Travel.

  • Zonker

    I definitely think you’re on to / were on to something. If I understand the graphic correctly, you’re saying that 815 had to crash so that Locke could prevent Desmond from committing suicide? I’ve also wondered if one of the plans of the Time Cops (Hawking, etc.) was for Locke to be the one to activate the fail safe, rather than the supposedly cowardly Desmond. The island certainly seemed to be leading Locke to the Hatch, but then later the island (again via a dream) led him to the Pearl station, making him disillusioned with button-pushing. All in an attempt to move him into the position of smashing the Swan station computer. Maybe Locke was supposed to turn the fail safe, or maybe activating the fail safe was a bad thing, and Locke was supposed experience what happened when the Swan went boom. In that view, Desmond’s importance was to keep pushing the button up until the point when Locke arrived to assume his destiny at ground zero of the Swan implosion.

    Perhaps that’s why Richard expects the young Locke to recognize the compass– Locke rather than Desmond was supposed to have achieved the ability to loop his consciousness through time.

  • tonymcnitt

    Really? No more Libby? That really bothers me. Sometimes Darlton assume we just get it and they decide that we’ve seen enough of it. I thought when they revealed Libby in the mental institute with Hurley that something big was up with her, and then again her showing up for Desmond and giving him the boat? These are pretty big factors to me?

    It’s the whole Michael disappointment all over again. So much to be done with that and they kind of let it fizzle with no pay off.

    Granted, Darlton and the writers are geniuses so I’m certainly not begrudging them anything, I just thought Libby was a pretty important role as they made her seem.